Soybean Oil's Premium to Palm Oil at Risk Due to El Nino (2026)

After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Nov 23, 2023El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine-0.7%
• Apr 29, 2026Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says | The Star+2.8%
• Sep 29, 2023Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output-4.5%
• Oct 24, 2024Palm oil reaches highest since 2022, adding to food price risks+0.5%
• Aug 30, 2023From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens+0.6%

After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2017Palm Oil Prices to Drop as Production Rebounds, Demand Slows-3.2%
• May 21, 2017Palm oil production to rise in Indonesia - Oxford Business Group-4.4%
• Mar 7, 2017Global palm oil output seen rising 11pc in 2017 | Malay Mail-6.3%
• Jan 29, 2026Oilseeds: Canola rallies, soybean meal too: bullish+0.6%
• May 15, 2023Summer Soybean Meal Prices Resist New Lows-8.0%