EM FX Outlook: Fed Easing Helps but Divergent Trends

After 398 past bullish macro events, USDCNY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Jun 14, 2023Diverging rates outlook has China's yuan eying 2022 lows+0.3%
• Jun 17, 2021Yuan eases to 3-week low after Fed takes more hawkish outlook - Markets - Business Recorder+1.2%
• Jun 8, 2022China’s yuan eases amid concerns of increasing policy divergence - Markets - Business Recorder+1.1%
• Apr 16, 2024Resurgent Dollar, Higher Yields Send EM Currencies to 2024 Lows - Bloomberg+0.0%
• Sep 17, 2020Yuan falls on dollar strength after Fed's upbeat economic outlook | Financial Post+0.8%

After 213 past bearish macro events, USDBRL moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Feb 8, 2018BCB: End to easing? - TDS — Octa-0.2%
• Aug 13, 2025Brazilian markets gain momentum on easing inflation outlook+1.6%
• Aug 23, 2019Brazil: Improving domestic outlook versus external headwinds – Rabobank — Octa+2.6%
• Nov 17, 2021LATAM FX Outlook 2022: Return of the Pink Tide? | articles | ING THINK+2.7%
• Sep 19, 2024Brazil’s Central Bank resumes tightening as Fed moves toward easing-0.0%