◂ Event Timeline

Sep 19, 2024MACROBrazil

Brazil’s Central Bank resumes tightening as Fed moves toward easing

Brazil's central bank raised the Selic rate to 10.75% from 10.5% on September 18, 2024, its first increase since August 2022, with a unanimous vote. The same day the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, widening the rate differential between the two countries.

WHY IT MATTERS

A higher Selic and a wider rate gap with the US tend to support the real, which can make Brazilian commodity exports more expensive in dollar terms.

AFFECTSUSDBRL▼

SOURCE
valorinternational.globo.comGabriel Shinohara, Alex RibeiroSep 19, 2024

Price reaction & history

USDBRL▼bearishSO FAR1d -1.4%5d -0.0%20d +3.5%

After 213 past bearish macro events, USDBRL moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

Jan 17, 2017Brazil real strengthens 1 pct as central bank resumes intervention-1.2%
Dec 10, 2020Brazil's real jumps after central bank hints at end of easing cycle | Financial Post-0.4%
Aug 27, 2019Brazil central bank to continue FX intervention on Wednesday as real nears record low - The Business Times+0.5%
Apr 17, 2017EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real jumps on central bank intervention+0.1%
Feb 17, 2023Brazil’s Central Bank Head Extends Hand to Lula, But Maintains Key Demands-0.9%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

USDBRL · GP ▸

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