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An ECIPE policy brief argues that the EUDR could be justified under the GATT Article XX exceptions but that it is open to WTO challenge as extraterritorial and more restrictive than necessary. The brief proposes an outcome-based equivalence system in place of rigid procedural rules, ahead of the December 30, 2024 start.
Legal uncertainty over the EUDR's WTO compatibility keeps trade flow risk for palm oil, soy and cattle products into the EU elevated, which can add a risk premium to prices.
ecipe.orgSep 26, 2024After 513 past neutral policy events, PALMOIL moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
