
The USDA Economic Research Service lowered its 2024 forecasts for US milk cow numbers, milk per cow, and total milk production, in line with recent inventory and output data. It raised 2024 and 2025 wholesale dairy price forecasts after cheddar, butter, whey and nonfat dry milk prices rose in August and September.
Tighter US milk supply combined with higher wholesale product prices points to firmer milk prices, and cheaper feed margins may encourage herd rebuilding over time.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.