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WisdomTree says La Niña is favoured to form in September-November 2024 with a 71% chance, persisting into early 2025. Historically, wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton have tended to rise in the six months after a La Niña begins.
Inventories of many agricultural commodities are below their long-term averages.
Low stocks mean less capacity to absorb a weather shock, so a La Niña-driven dry spell in South America could lift soy and corn prices. Higher Southeast Asian rainfall would support palm oil and rice output.
wisdomtree.comSep 16, 2024After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 38 past bullish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +3.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
