
US soybean crush reached a record high for September, driven by healthy crush margins. Ontario and US soybean prices were near seasonal lows in late October.
US soymeal values have been falling, which supports offshore export competitiveness.
Record crush adds meal supply, which is bearish for soymeal, while sustained crushing supports soybean demand. Lower US meal values make US product more competitive abroad.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.