The Russian government has decided to extend and adjust export quotas for mineral fertilizers, effective from 1 December 2024 to 31 May 2025. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will allocate the quota volumes among foreign trade participants.
The stated aim is to keep sufficient fertilizer volumes on the domestic market.
Export quotas cap how much Russian fertilizer reaches world markets during the winter period, which can support nitrogen and phosphate prices if the volumes are binding.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.