
Russian farmers are switching area from wheat to other crops after heavy losses. Russia's wheat harvest is set to fall to 83 million tons from 92.8 million in 2023, and grain profitability is near zero in many regions.
A smaller Russian crop and shrinking wheat plantings tighten the export supply from the world's top wheat exporter, supporting global wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.