
Corn fell again during the week of November 29, recovering only slightly from pre-Thanksgiving weakness. The market reacted with a delayed and less volatile move after the President-elect announced potential tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China to take effect when he takes office.
Proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China threaten US feed grain and oilseed exports, which is bearish for corn and soybeans, though markets are treating the threat as a negotiating tactic for now.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.