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Russian gas flows through Ukraine are set to end as the transit deal expires on January 1. Russian, Ukrainian and European officials have ruled out a new deal to keep about 530 Bcf flowing.
The flows currently supply about 5% of Europe's gas demand.
Loss of the Ukraine transit route removes a supply source for Europe, pushing gas prices higher and raising nitrogen fertilizer production costs. The change also increases reliance on LNG.
reuters.comDec 30, 2024After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
