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The EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its 2025 US on-highway diesel price forecast to $3.66 per gallon from $3.61. Quarterly projections were also revised up, with Q1 at $3.57 and Q4 at $3.76.
A higher official diesel forecast signals sustained freight and fuel cost pressure for feed distribution. The revision is a modest upward adjustment rather than a new shock.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.