More crowded US dollar trade ramps up expectations for euro parity: Reuters poll

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 24, 2026US dollar strengthens to 13-month high on Fed rate hike expectations | Reuters-0.1%
• May 1, 2025FOREX US dollar rallies on continued trade deal optimism; yen slumps | Reuters-0.4%
• Nov 15, 2024Dollar notches weekly gain as traders reassess rate cut expectations+0.1%
• Oct 12, 2023Dollar gains after US consumer prices rise more than expected+0.9%
• Nov 23, 2021Dollar gains, euro recovers on better than expected data | Reuters+0.5%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Dec 4, 2024Euro to stay weak, but avoid parity to USD for now: Reuters poll-0.1%
• Jun 28, 2022Euro dips as markets manage expectations of ECB rate hikes | Reuters-3.3%
• Jul 13, 2022Explainer: Why the euro's fall below parity versus dollar matters+1.7%
• May 22, 2025US dollar gains, sentiment still frayed; euro falters | Reuters+0.2%
• Jul 13, 2022ECB is 'attentive' to exchange rate as euro hits parity with dollar | Reuters+1.7%