Bank of America forecasts Brent to average $75 a barrel in 2025 and $73 in 2026, citing low inventories and about 5 million bpd of OPEC spare capacity. The bank sees prices toward the low end of a $60 to $80 range if spare capacity is used, a Ukraine peace deal emerges or a recession hits.
The forecast sets a medium-term energy price baseline for feed input and transport budgets. Its range shows that policy and recession risks could push costs lower.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.