
The US EIA raised its 2025 Henry Hub natural gas price forecast to $3.80/mmBtu, up about 21%, and lifted its 2026 forecast to $4.20. The agency cited heavy January storage withdrawals and cold weather.
A higher official natural gas outlook signals firmer energy input costs for nitrogen fertilizer and processing, supporting urea and ammonia prices.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.