
The EIA kept its 2024 Henry Hub spot price forecast at $2.20/MMBtu in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook. It expects US dry gas output to fall 1% in 2024 and rise 2% in 2025 to a record near 105 Bcf/d.
The agency also projects a 2025 Henry Hub average of $3.10.
The forecast of lower 2024 output and higher 2025 prices signals a firmer gas market ahead. This affects energy-cost planning for feed producers over the next year.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.