South American soybean meal port basis strengthened to its highest since December 2024, with Brazil's FOB Paranagua at a $7/st premium to CBOT on March 20 and Argentina's Up River at $2/st. Market participants attribute part of the firmness to expected Chinese purchases of South American soybeans in place of US beans and EU meal buying due to trade disputes.
Outright FOB prices remain near lows since mid-2020.
Stronger South American meal premiums raise the landed cost of meal for importers despite low outright prices, and signal trade-diversion demand that could support soybean meal values into the new season.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.