China is likely to buy more-than-usual U.S. Gulf soybeans in February and March. Harvest delays in Brazil and drought in Argentina are limiting South American supply, and Sinograin has bought several U.S. cargoes for national reserves.
Platts assessed April FOB New Orleans soybeans at $600.67/mt.
Stronger Chinese demand for U.S. Gulf cargoes tightens nearby supply and supports soybean basis and prices. South American supply constraints reinforce that support.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.