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Brazil's soybean harvest is about to begin after a dry planting season, with Mato Grosso output expected near 4.8 billion bushels. Brazilian stocks are scarce, and about 70% of the crop had been forward sold by December, while Chinese demand keeps strengthening.
Limited Brazilian supplies and strong Chinese buying tighten global soybean liquidity, which supports prices until the South American crop reaches market.
After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.