USDA's Agricultural Outlook for Livestock and Poultry projects continued cattle herd contraction in 2025, with the national herd ending 2024 at 86.7 million head and the beef cow herd at its lowest since 1961. The report also says poultry, especially egg producers, continue to struggle with bird flu.
It expects lower feed prices to continue the trend that began in 2023.
Herd contraction supports cattle prices, while falling feed costs ease margins for livestock feeders. Lower expected feed prices point to weaker demand for feed grains like corn.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.