
Rabobank's fourth-quarter beef report expects US beef production to hold at high levels in 2020 and likely 2021. US import prices jumped in October to levels last seen in 2014.
Growing Chinese demand is increasing beef imports from Australia and New Zealand.
High US import prices and strong global demand support domestic cattle values. Expected heifer retention may limit carcass weights, which tempers supply growth.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.