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The US closed its border to Mexican cattle on May 11 after screwworm cases were reported in Veracruz, Oaxaca and Tabasco. Feedyards are feeling the squeeze as feeder cattle imports, which had recovered to about 20,000 head a week, fall below 2024 levels.
Tighter feeder supplies raise input costs for feedyards and support feeder cattle prices through the summer.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.