As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.

• Nov 25, 2024US suspends Mexican cattle imports after New World screwworm case | Reuters+1.6%
• May 13, 2025Mexico to tighten cattle flows from south, rules out shutting border over screwworm-0.5%
• May 11, 2025US suspends Mexican cattle, horse and bison imports over screwworm pest | Reuters+0.3%
• Feb 24, 2026Border closure over New World Screwworm threat ripples across U.S. beef industry-3.3%
• May 9, 2024Nicaragua reports screwworm outbreak in cattle | The Cattle Site+0.6%

After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Nov 25, 2024US suspends Mexican cattle imports after New World screwworm case | Reuters+1.0%
• May 13, 2025Mexico to tighten cattle flows from south, rules out shutting border over screwworm-2.4%
• May 11, 2025US suspends Mexican cattle, horse and bison imports over screwworm pest | Reuters-0.4%
• Feb 24, 2026Border closure over New World Screwworm threat ripples across U.S. beef industry-1.9%
• Mar 27, 2026Screwworm Fears are Reshaping the U.S. Cattle Feeding Industry+2.6%