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Rate-futures traders pushed their expected first Fed cut to September after a US-China tariff delay, with only a half-point of cuts now priced by year-end. US bond yields rose and equity futures pointed higher.
Later rate cuts support the dollar and tighten financial conditions, weighing on commodity prices broadly.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.