◂ Event Timeline

Jun 6, 2025POLICYGlobal

HSBC flags downside risks to Brent price outlook due to OPEC+ supply hikes

HSBC expects OPEC+ to accelerate supply hikes in August and September, raising downside risks to its $65 per barrel Brent forecast for Q4 2025. The note was published in early June.

WHY IT MATTERS

Faster OPEC+ output increases add supply to the crude market and point to lower energy prices ahead, reducing fuel and transport costs for feed buyers.

AFFECTSBRENT▼

SOURCE
reuters.comJun 6, 2025

Price reaction & history

BRENT▼bearishSO FAR1d +1.5%5d +5.8%20d +5.1%

After 210 past bearish policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

Feb 17, 2025OPEC+ is not considering delay to April oil supply hike, Novak says-0.4%
Dec 3, 2021WTI, Brent Down 5% Week Over Week on Omicron Variant, Oversupply Risks+5.9%
Mar 31, 2022OPEC+ Sticks To Modest Oil Production Hike Despite Calls For More Supply-11.9%
Dec 1, 2025Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+0.7%
Sep 27, 2024Oil settles higher but falls on the week on firmer supply outlook+7.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

BRENT · GP ▸

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