Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• May 27, 2021Uncertain about Iranian oil, OPEC+ likely to stick to policy+3.1%
• Jun 6, 2025HSBC flags downside risks to Brent price outlook due to OPEC+ supply hikes+5.8%
• Dec 2, 2021Oil Plunges 4.8% as Russia Is Said to Propose OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg+9.7%
• Sep 1, 2021OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast-2.2%
• Sep 1, 2021Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters-2.2%

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• May 27, 2021Uncertain about Iranian oil, OPEC+ likely to stick to policy+3.7%
• Dec 2, 2021Oil Plunges 4.8% as Russia Is Said to Propose OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg+10.6%
• Sep 1, 2021OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast+1.3%
• Sep 1, 2021Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters+1.3%
• Jun 27, 2017OPEC in no rush on deeper oil output cut, to look at in July+7.1%