Uncertain about Iranian oil, OPEC+ likely to stick to policy

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2025Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+2.7%
• Mar 9, 2018Opec+ likely to raise July oil output by 188,000 bpd+1.7%
• Apr 1, 2025OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say-15.1%
• Sep 1, 2021Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters+1.3%
• Sep 1, 2021OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast+1.3%

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2025Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+0.7%
• Mar 9, 2018Opec+ likely to raise July oil output by 188,000 bpd+1.0%
• Apr 1, 2025OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say-14.2%
• Sep 1, 2021Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters-2.2%
• Apr 27, 2021OPEC+ sticks to plan to ease oil output cuts from May 1 | Reuters+3.2%