
OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 432,000 bpd for May, slightly above the usual 400,000 bpd step. The US decided on the same day to release 1 million bpd from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve for six months.
The modest OPEC+ increase is outweighed by the record SPR release, which adds supply and tends to lower crude and diesel prices. Lower energy costs ease feed production and transport expenses.
After 215 past bearish policy events, WTI moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.