
Canola futures rallied modestly in mid-June, with new-crop December soyoil up about 8% and November canola up 2.7% from June 13 to 20. Prices are supported by drought in Canada and expectations that old-crop carry-in will be smaller than normal.
Israel-Iran war lifted oil prices and US biofuel policy remains the dominant oilseed driver.
Smaller carry-in stocks and drought support vegetable oil prices, while US biofuel subsidies add demand for soy and canola oil. Higher crude also supports vegetable oil values.
After 184 past bullish weather events, SBO moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.