Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Brazil after spat with Lula

After 16 past bullish trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 2, 2019Brazil's real falls to 4.25 per dollar after Trump says he will restore tariffs on Brazil steel imports-1.2%
• Jul 17, 2025U.S. tariff dispute weighs on Brazil’s real and interest rates-0.3%
• Oct 18, 2019After trade talks in U.S., China ramps up Brazilian soy purchases-3.6%
• May 28, 2020China securing Brazilian soy with US trade tensions rising-4.5%
• Jul 16, 2026USD/BRL Near R$5.09: Can Brazil's Carry Trade Absorb the New 25% US Tariff? | EBC Financial Group-0.4%

After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Oct 18, 2019After trade talks in U.S., China ramps up Brazilian soy purchases+0.2%
• Jan 26, 2018Dollar's terrible week warning of what could with Trump's on trade-0.7%
• May 1, 2025EU tariffs to curb US corn imports, soy at lower risk for now-0.4%
• Oct 31, 2025Analysis: China’s Xi has the advantage after his trade meeting with Trump | CNN+0.0%
• Oct 28, 2019The fine print of Trump's China tariff deal - Brownfield Ag News+0.4%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.