EU-U.S. trade deal dented euro strength. Strategists say it may not last

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• May 1, 2022The Bank of Japan may have limited tools to deal with the weak yen, but that's not its focus+0.3%
• Jan 28, 2021ECB in ‘Currency War’ Over Euro, Commerzbank Strategist Says - Bloomberg+0.2%
• Jul 29, 2025Euro hits one-month low after reality check on US-EU trade deal, markets await cenbank decisions — TradingView News+0.3%
• Nov 17, 2025Dollar strengthens as traders await return of U.S. data | Reuters+0.7%
• Oct 14, 2022Bank of Canada says persistent U.S. dollar strength could force interest rates higher+0.2%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 29, 2019The Euro-Dollar Rate Could Bounce if Fed Cuts Rates but It Won't Last, Analysts Say-0.1%
• Sep 11, 2020Euro Retreats after ECB Blows Hot and Cold On Currency Strength and 'No Deal' Brexit Risk Builds-0.5%
• Apr 12, 2018Euro in Danger as Strength Now a Pressing Issue for the European Central Bank-0.0%
• Oct 2, 2026Euro’s Breakdown Is Becoming a Politics Trade, Not Just a Rates Trade | Investing.com-0.4%
• Jan 28, 2021ECB in ‘Currency War’ Over Euro, Commerzbank Strategist Says - Bloomberg-0.6%