The euro fell to nearly $1.1160, a 17-month low, in thin Asian trading as political concerns in France weighed on it. The French-German 10-year premium is nearly 150 basis points.
Markets have cut the odds of an October Fed hike to under 20% from about 70% a week earlier, and Spain's government lost a housing vote and called an election.
Shifting Fed expectations change the outlook for dollar strength, which affects dollar-priced feed commodities and import costs for non-US buyers. Euro political risk also weighs on European currency and feed-buying power.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.