The euro fell to its lowest level since May 2017 against the dollar after weak inflation data, including German preliminary CPI falling to 1.2% in September from 1.4%. The EU harmonized inflation measure fell to 0.9%, fueling expectations of further ECB easing.
Expectations of more ECB easing keep the euro weak and the dollar firm, which tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices and supports US export pricing.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.