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Pork retail prices averaged $4.922 per pound in June, the highest since March, and national direct hog prices averaged $76.34/cwt. Professor Ron Plain expects a fairly sharp decline in late summer hog prices as the farm-to-retail spread normalizes.
A narrow farm-to-retail spread and slaughter running below year-ago levels suggest packers must pressure farm prices lower later in summer, making hog prices bearish into fall.
nationalhogfarmer.comRon PlainJul 28, 2025After 17 past bearish macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.5% to +0.8%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
