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The JRC MARS bulletin for July 2025 forecasts above-average winter crop yields in Romania, Bulgaria, France, Spain, Ireland and the Nordic and Baltic countries. Yields around average are expected in Germany, Poland and Hungary, while Italy and Türkiye face reductions from heat and water stress.
Summer crops in south-eastern Europe face yield losses from persistent rain deficits and high temperatures.
Improved European winter crop yields add supply to the EU grain balance and weigh on feed wheat and barley prices, while heat stress in southeastern summer crops, notably corn in Hungary and Romania, supports some feed grain demand for imports.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euJul 21, 2025After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
