
ABARES expects 2022-23 winter crop production of 50.9Mt from 23.4 million hectares of plantings, despite delays from wet weather in NSW and Queensland. Yields in Queensland and NSW are forecast to be markedly above average.
Strong east coast yield prospects indicate abundant Australian grain for export, a modest bearish factor for wheat and barley against tight global supplies.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.