
CME live cattle futures rose on Aug. 12 as tight cattle supplies and sharply higher beef values lifted prices.
USDA cut its 2025 beef production forecast 1% to 25.926 billion pounds and its 2026 forecast 1.4% to 25.470 billion pounds, and Choice cutout jumped $9.06 to $390.58.
Lower USDA beef output forecasts point to persistently tight supply and high beef values, supporting cattle prices, while cheaper corn from the record crop helped feeder futures.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.