
Lean hog futures hit contract highs at CME on Friday after USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed US hog inventory on September 1 at 74.5 million head, down 1.3% year over year, below analyst expectations. Analysts said the supply tightness could extend from December through May 2026, and US cattle inventories remain near multi-decade lows.
A smaller hog herd than expected tightens near-term pork supply, supporting hog prices and raising the cost of hog-based feed demand signals. Tight cattle supplies also keep beef and cattle prices firm, which can lift the appeal of alternative proteins.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.