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Farmdoc daily estimates that about $3.2 billion, or 24%, of the projected $13.5 billion in 2025 ARC/PLC payments comes from farmers receiving the higher of the two program payments. The estimates depend on current price projections and may change during the marketing year.
The payouts add income support for US row-crop producers, which can cushion farmer selling pressure, but the price effect on feed grains is modest.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoNov 26, 2025After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
