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Farmdoc daily projects that 2025 ARC and PLC program payments will exceed $13.5 billion, to be paid in October 2026. The projections use November 2025 WASDE price projections and FSA program data.
Large deferred farm payments support producer finances and could sustain planting and feed-demand decisions, though the direct effect on feed commodity prices is limited.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoNov 19, 2025After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
