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Chinese producer Xinlianxin is exporting urea under an export price-support policy, at 600 yuan per ton above domestic prices. Its black urea sales rose 39% year on year, and coal costs are up 10% year on year.
Strong Chinese export margins encourage greater urea shipments, adding global nitrogen supply but supporting world urea prices, which feeds into higher grain production costs.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.