European natural gas prices resumed gains above €100 per megawatt-hour on concerns the US may resume combat with Iran, which could prolong regional supply disruptions. Gas was on track for a monthly gain of around 40%.
Higher European gas raises fertilizer and energy costs, and it supports the broader energy complex, which can feed through to feed production costs.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.