
Brent crude traded near $60.61 and WTI near $57.13 on January 5 as markets assessed the US military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. OPEC+ had paused production increases for February and March.
Lower crude oil prices reduce biofuel and diesel costs, which weighs on soyoil and vegetable oil demand and farm input costs, though Venezuela's limited output limits the supply effect.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.