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Soybean oil rose to new contract highs and a 16-month weekly high despite bearish NOPA crush data. The EPA is expected to send 2026 biofuel blending volumes of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons to the White House, up from 3.35 billion last year.
Higher biofuel mandates would sharply increase demand for soybean oil, supporting its price and the value of the crush.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.