Mysteel reports Dalian soybean meal prices dipped and recovered, trading in a tug-of-war at low levels. Seasonal selling pressure is strongest in this period, and the Brazilian real depreciated more than 10% after President Lula's election-related developments.
Sharp real depreciation makes Brazilian soybean meal cheaper for export, adding pressure on Chinese meal prices. Seasonal Brazilian supply pressure reinforces the bearish outlook for soybean meal.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.