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Sources say China will keep its phosphate fertiliser export suspension in place through August 2026, despite the Middle East war, citing domestic food security priorities. Rising sulfur costs are expected to lift global phosphate production costs because the Middle East is a key sulfur producer.
Continued Chinese phosphate export absence removes a major supply source and, combined with higher sulfur costs, supports DAP and phosphate prices into the spring season.
spglobal.comLucas Toh, David PillaiMar 4, 2026After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
