Global markets fell on March 18 after the Fed held rates steady and signaled an inflation spike, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their lowest closes since November. Brent rose 5% to $110 and WTI to $100 as Iran war supply fears intensified, while gold slumped 4%.
Higher energy prices and rate expectations strengthen the dollar and weigh on dollar-priced commodities, while elevated crude costs raise feed-ingredient and freight costs for buyers.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.