The offshore yuan weakened to about 6.83 per dollar on April 20, its third straight session of losses and its lowest level in over a week. Safe-haven dollar demand rose after Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US maintained a blockade on Iran-linked ships.
The PBoC fixed the midpoint 356 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate.
Renewed Hormuz tension lifts oil and freight costs and strengthens the dollar, which raises the cost of imported feed inputs for Asian buyers. A weaker yuan also makes Chinese purchases of dollar-priced commodities more expensive.
After 14 past bullish geopolitics events, USDCNY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.