Canadian Dollar consolidates vs USD as BoC, FOMC decisions loom

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2022Canadian dollar firms as oil surges on rising Russia-Ukraine tensions - The Globe and Mail+5.3%
• Dec 18, 2023Canadian dollar retreats from four-month high ahead of CPI data+3.1%
• Dec 22, 2025Canadian dollar rises ahead of GDP data as oil prices climb | Reuters+2.1%
• Jul 18, 2022Canadian dollar perks up with oil back near $100-2.2%
• Mar 2, 2026Dollar (USD) Gains as Higher Oil Prices Damp Bets on Fed Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+35.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 30, 2026Canadian dollar hits nearly four-month low as war raises growth concerns | MarketScreener Canada+1.2%
• Dec 22, 2025Canadian dollar rises ahead of GDP data as oil prices climb | Reuters+2.6%
• Jul 18, 2022Canadian dollar perks up with oil back near $100-1.5%
• Mar 2, 2026Dollar (USD) Gains as Higher Oil Prices Damp Bets on Fed Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+31.0%
• Feb 24, 2022Canadian dollar hits two-month low as Russia invades Ukraine - The Globe and Mail+18.2%

After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, DXY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026Dollar (USD) Gains as Higher Oil Prices Damp Bets on Fed Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+1.4%
• Feb 24, 2022Canadian dollar hits two-month low as Russia invades Ukraine - The Globe and Mail+1.0%
• Jul 19, 2021Canadian dollar falls by most in 13 months on rising risk aversion | Financial Post+0.4%
• Mar 30, 2026AUD/USD weakens as Trump-driven risk aversion boosts US Dollar-0.2%
• Aug 24, 2026Dollar higher after Iran sanctions, loonie drops after US announces tariff increases | MarketScreener Canada+0.6%