WASDE, Geopolitical Tensions, and Export Demand Shape Mixed Outlook for U.S. Agriculture

After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2025Wheat: mixed picture and news from Russia | Agriculture-0.5%
• Jan 8, 2024India's agricultural exports to rise despite curbs on wheat, rice, sugar - minister-2.5%
• Sep 14, 2020Rice, Sugar, and Pulses Lead India's Agricultural Exports - Grainmart News+1.4%
• May 2, 2025Ukraine's agricultural exports drop 23.4% in April+2.1%
• Apr 19, 2017India: Reduced quantity restrictions on export of certain agricultural products - Global Trade Alert+1.2%

After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jul 11, 2018Trade War Repercussions for U.S. Agriculture+0.5%
• Jun 16, 2021Foreign Demand Fuels U.S. Corn and Sorghum Exports | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service-2.3%
• Mar 23, 2017Wary of Protectionism, U.S. Agriculture Wages Charm Offensive to Save Mexican Exports – Foreign Policy+0.2%
• Nov 20, 2020Feed weekly outlook: Export demand supports grain prices - Grainews+0.1%
• May 11, 2026Export Sales to Mexico and South Korea | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service+1.4%

After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Feb 8, 2023U.S. agriculture exports top $200 billion in 2022 as China grabs record share+1.5%
• Apr 6, 2017US Agriculture Bets the Farm on Chinese Soy Demand+0.4%
• Nov 13, 2024Opportunities abound for China, US to expand agricultural trade, exec says - Chinadaily.com.cn-0.5%
• Mar 7, 2022Retaliatory tariffs against U.S. agricultural exports first began in mid-2018+0.9%
• Nov 1, 2024U.S. grains: Corn ticks up on export demand, easing harvest pressure - Grainews+3.4%

After 283 past trade events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 19, 2025Tariff Exemptions Shift Fertilizer Outlook for Producers - RFD-TV-0.5%
• Aug 27, 2020Agriculture ministry redetermines fertiliser demand | The Business Standard-3.1%
• Nov 3, 2025India's urea imports jumps 2x to 5.8 million tonnes in April-Oct: Govt | Agriculture - Business Standard+2.3%
• Nov 20, 2020AgroPages-Urea market fed by the hand of India-Agricultural news+9.4%
• Aug 28, 2025Sticky input prices and short supplies: What's keeping fertilizer costs high? - RealAgriculture-7.5%